Is a 3 BILLION-Pound Almond Crop Possible?
By Chase Thomas, CCA
The quick and easy answer is yes, it is possible to achieve a 3 billion-pound almond crop. But is it likely to happen? No, and here’s why.
Many factors must align perfectly for such a large crop, and Mother Nature often intervenes with unexpected challenges during the growing season, weather variability, pests, or other curveballs, that limit maximum potential yields. Growers themselves also contribute to reduced output through self-imposed constraints. One major reason a 3-billion-pound crop remains unlikely is the ongoing impact of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).
SGMA is enforcing strict groundwater pumping limits in overdrafted basins throughout the San Joaquin Valley. These water restrictions are leading to a decline in bearing acres, with many almond orchards (especially on the west side) removed from production or left fallow.
Water is essential for almond production. Generally, achieving high yields of 3,000–4,000 pounds per acre requires 3–4 acre-feet of water per acre. Under SGMA, many growers are limited to about 2.5 acre-feet per acre, which falls short of supporting those higher yields that growers have historically achieved. To access additional water for better yields, growers must purchase it at expensive cost.
There are approximately 1.4 million bearing acre of almonds heading into this year. If the average yield is 2000 pounds, then we could expect the total crop to come in at 2.8 billion pounds.
While these challenges might make growers question their future in almonds, there are positive developments ahead. Almond prices have risen in 2025, creating better market conditions. Growers can position themselves for success by developing a solid game plan and executing.
Bloom is here, and the goal is to give the crop every possible advantage for success. Yields are difficult to predict. We like to start our fertilizer programs strong from the start. Making sure our trees have plant available nutrition so when the almonds start to push, the roots can pull the nutrients up and start building your crop. As Robert mentioned in the article above, during bloom, phosphorus (ortho-phosphate) is especially important, providing the energy trees need to support nut set and development.
By applying the nutrition required to grow, set, and size nuts effectively, growers maximize potential. If in April, yields appear to be falling short of expectations, growers can then reevaluate and decide how they want to finish out the growing season.
Many factors are beyond control, while others are within reach. The best approach is to put forward maximum effort on what can be managed. Growers who start strong, maintain momentum, and finish with good yields and high quality will be the ones who get the bigger paycheck at the end of the season.
